Anticipating tomorrow's resources

Most public policies and studies propose solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Taking account of hazards and low-carbon solutions are one building block, but let's not forget other disruptors: dwindling energy supplies and the availability of resources.
 

Energy needs, which have been growing since the industrial revolution and exponential since the XIXᵉ century, have led to a steady increase in the consumption of fossil fuels, the equivalent of 80% of the world's energy supply (Figure 1). Most of the world economy relies on oil, which is inextricably linked to transport. In France, 91% of vehicles run on petroleum products² (diesel, petrol, jet fuel), compared with 95% in Europe and the rest of the world. As Figure 2 shows, 56% of the world's oil is used for transport, and 66% in Europe. Given the need for by-products, it is hard to imagine the building and public works sector using oil without recourse to this resource.

Graph 1 - Global trends in primary energy consumption by energy source (Even et al.¹).

Figure 2 - Products derived from oil and natural gas in 2017 by sector of activity (Michaux³).

With regard to future production, some studies⁴ give peaks in world production between 2020 and 2045 depending on the scenarios, with 50% lower world production estimated around 2100. In a study by the Shift Project⁵, the general estimate of peak oil production in the sixteen main oil-supplying countries is before 2030, with a 50% drop in supply around 2050. Finally, with regard to oil discoveries, the volumes vary depending on the author, but easily exploitable deposits are becoming increasingly rare. (NB: This reasoning is also applicable to gas, but with a time lag, as peak gas is expected after peak oil, according to many observers).

The availability of resources is often summed up in price. But this is a trickier question. Recent years have shown that geopolitics has a significant influence on the availability of resources, as does the consumption of countries such as China, India and Brazil. In the same vein, the post-Covid-19 period has also demonstrated the weaknesses of supply chains, whether we are talking about external supplies (from other countries) or internal supplies (from France). One example is wood that was grown in France but sold on the North American market. We therefore need to think in terms of "real" availability rather than theoretical availability based on global production.

Oil on a building scale

As explained above, oil is the energy of transport... so less oil means less transport. This is a crucial point in the construction industry, where materials have to be imported and transported to the site. The availability of resources is also likely to have an impact on design and the building itself. Choices must take this availability into account (when it is not possible to do otherwise) or avoid it as much as possible by using materials that will be available when the time comes, whatever the disruption.

Choosing resilient materials

There are already materials available that are resilient to climate change, reduced energy supplies and the availability of resources. The aim is to use low-carbon materials that are produced close to the site. Such specifications tip the balance in favour of organic and geosourced products, which are often renewable materials that require little processing and can be produced locally. The table below details the consequences and effects of these three characteristics.

Solutions for buildings

As far as the structure of buildings is concerned, these are the solutions used by our ancestors when they had no oil. They include wood, stone and rubble, load-bearing earth and load-bearing straw. As far as insulation and finishing materials are concerned, we can also think of "old" buildings, with for example: wood (fibre or panel), earth (as rendering or filling), non-load-bearing concrete walls (hemp concrete, for example), insulation based on natural fibres (hemp, grass, flax, sheep, etc.), straw.

What about the future? Proposing solutions that only address climate change could create other problems elsewhere. So we need to think as broadly as possible to explore solutions that are as systemic as possible. While this article mentions just two additional disruptions, there are many others. The solutions outlined here will not be able to solve all the problems and should not be seen as a panacea. They are simply the first building blocks of a new construction industry. Finally, we must not forget the crucial importance of resilience and adaptation to future disruptions in the buildings to be renovated. Remember that 80% of housing in 2050 has already been built.

This article is part of our Adaptation & Resilience of Buildings feature, which you can find here.

Marceau Gourovitch - C-TEK

¹Catherine Even et al, "Énergies et pollutions", 2021, 43.
²SDES, "Chiffres clés de l'énergie - Édition 2021", Datalab (La Défense: MTE, September 2021). ³Simon Michaux, "Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective", GTK Open File Work (Finland: Geological Survey of Finland, 22 December 2019).
⁴Jean Laherrère, Charles A.S. Hall, and Roger Bentley, "How Much Oil Remains for the World to Produce? Comparing Assessment Methods, and Separating Fact from Fiction," Current Research in Environmental Sustainability 4(2022): 100174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2022.100174.
⁵The Shift Project, "Future oil supply for the European Union: state of reserves and production prospects for the main supplier countries" (Paris: The Shift Project, May 2021).